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October 4, 2021
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EllioTrades Daily Roundups

October 4, 2021

We Are in the Middle of the Web3 (R)evolution

Oliver Grah
Oct 4, 2021
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Introduction

It has been a quiet start to the week, especially price-whise (with some notable exceptions such as $AXS, $SOL and $LUNA). With the stock markets fearing the looming Evergrande insolvency and grappling with Europe’s energy crisis, we have seen little risk appetite in the broader investment landscape.

Despite the muted price action in crypto land, there is no shortage of interesting stories today. So, strap in!

Market Outlook

  • We have had this bullish pattern for ETH on the radar for many weeks now… Will it play out? Soon we will know.

Twitter avatar for @Krugman25Krugman⟠.eth 🦇🔊 See 📌 Taking a break ⛱️ @Krugman25
Pretty obvious Cup & Handle in $ETH
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October 3rd 2021

60 Retweets564 Likes
  • A fractal worth noting can be seen in the Bitcoin’s difficulty ribbon chart. Take it with a grain of salt but if we saw 2018’s pattern repeat, we could expect some very bullish price action over the next few months.

Twitter avatar for @Negentropic_Jan & Yann @Negentropic_
#Bitcoin difficulty ribbon is soon to signal a positive recovery as more miners come back online. The last comparable event was following bear market capitulation in Dec 2018, which took 164-days to flip positive. The current mining recovery has taken 120-days.
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October 4th 2021

87 Retweets502 Likes
  • Supply shock inbound (finally)?

Twitter avatar for @WClementeIIIWill Clemente @WClementeIII
Long-term holder supply shock has reached all-time highs. Each time the metric has reached the upper bound of the highlighted green range we've seen major price appreciation over the coming months. Buckle up.
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October 3rd 2021

930 Retweets4,881 Likes
  • We see several potential negative and positive catalysts on the horizon. While timing them is hard, it’s important to think about their potential short- vs. long-term implications. Be prepared for a rollercoaster ride!

Twitter avatar for @mayaziMa/ya Zehavi @mayazi
Imagine what happens if the Biden administration’ stablecoin recommendations tank the market & then the SEC approves a Bitcoin ETF

October 3rd 2021

2 Retweets10 Likes

On the Current Bull Market & Taking Profits

  • Nothing is more important in crypto than having a strategy in place BEFORE things go crazy. It’s much harder to stick to a plan when prices move quickly in either direction if you haven’t thought about it in advance. Even for seasoned crypto investors, it’s not always easy to not get caught up in their emotions – FOMO and FUD can be powerful!

  • Ari Paul does a good job putting his thinking about the current bull market and his take-profit strategy into perspective. Take from it what you will but there is certainly something to learn.

Twitter avatar for @AriDavidPaulAri Paul ⛓️ @AriDavidPaul
I’m medium term very bullish, but will fairly soon be in profit taking mode. I’m not sure what medium term means. My guess is we have one more major parabolic run this bull cycle, don’t know if that is a 3 month or 18 month timeline. I’ll clarify - /1

October 3rd 2021

133 Retweets983 Likes
Twitter avatar for @AriDavidPaulAri Paul ⛓️ @AriDavidPaul
2/ in trading a full market cycle, my approach is to trade around a very long position for the first 2/3 of the bull run, then gradually trade around a less and less long core position when we’re in the later parabolic stages. I’m still making long term buys today,

October 3rd 2021

7 Retweets172 Likes
Twitter avatar for @AriDavidPaulAri Paul ⛓️ @AriDavidPaul
3/ but fairly soon I expect to view any new buys as momentum trades with stops. Worth noting that the last parabolic stages often give the sharpest rallies and highest returns…but also pose the most risk and sharpest reversals. Imo, it’s 1998 in cryptocurrency.

October 3rd 2021

8 Retweets226 Likes
Twitter avatar for @AriDavidPaulAri Paul ⛓️ @AriDavidPaul
4/ there are great momentum traders that don’t even start buying until later stages of a bull run, but to do that, you need to be very good at identifying tops and going to cash (and not buying back in on dips for a long time.)

October 3rd 2021

2 Retweets138 Likes
Twitter avatar for @AriDavidPaulAri Paul ⛓️ @AriDavidPaul
5/ to use 2017 as an analogy, a lot of people got in at $8k or $12k, or sadly $19k, then thought they should “buy the dip” and so bought $15k or $8k on the way down, ending up losing 70%+ and having to wait 3 years just to breakeven.

October 3rd 2021

4 Retweets176 Likes
Twitter avatar for @AriDavidPaulAri Paul ⛓️ @AriDavidPaul
6/ this cycle won’t match 2017 exactly. Maybe it’ll be totally different 🤷‍♂️. Maybe BTC or ETH will go up in a straight line forever. I don’t have a crystal ball. But I’ll be betting that this looks very roughly like almost every other crypto bull run (and tech run) in history

October 3rd 2021

11 Retweets330 Likes

The Hypocrisy of Regulation

  • After the Panama papers in 2016, we now get a new scandal: the Pandora Papers. While the extent of the recent leak is immense, it basically shows that nothing has changed for the better in the last five years: Rich people continue to hide their money in secret off-shore accounts, and regulators do an excellent job at looking away.

  • But of course, crypto needs to be heavily regulated to protect the consumers… or was it the legacy financial system?

Twitter avatar for @mayaziMa/ya Zehavi @mayazi
Funny how regulators & legislators couldn’t care less about off shore tax avoidance but are willing to crack down on an entire industry (where a younger generation is making their own wealth) just to get their hands on alleged tax avoidance
Pandora papers: biggest ever leak of offshore data exposes financial secrets of rich and powerfulMillions of documents reveal offshore deals and assets of more than 100 billionaires, 30 world leaders and 300 public officialstheguardian.com

October 3rd 2021

8 Retweets56 Likes

The ‘Merge' Is Coming

  • Yesterday we mentioned that after the ‘Merge’, ETH issuance would drastically decrease, making ETH’s monetary policy significantly “harder”. Guess what? Today, ETH developers have made an important step closer towards the transition to ETH 2.0.

Twitter avatar for @trent_vaneppstrent.eth @trent_vanepps
get hyped folks, it's happening 💪

Jacek Sieka @jcksie

Merge event, day 1: @ethnimbus and @nethermindeth does #themerge transition! https://t.co/eyRlygTMbV

October 4th 2021

9 Retweets95 Likes
  • A quick reminder that while the largest returns are certainly made with the right NFT and altcoin picks, there is a common denominator for a more passive and low-risk investing strategy: ETH.

  • Yes, there is also a LOT happening on emerging L1s such as Solana and Avalanche, but the majority of economically significant NFT and DeFi activity is still happening on Ethereum and L2s. Playing hot L1s can work out if you pick the right ones and nail timing – but betting on the Ethereum ecosystem is likely less risky on all times frames.

Twitter avatar for @matterhorn_ethMatterhorn🦇🔊 @matterhorn_eth
If you're bullish on - NFTs, - DeFi, - play-to-earn, - DAOs, - the metaverse, - L2s then you're bullish on Ethereum

October 4th 2021

9 Retweets106 Likes
  • To put some misconceptions about ETH L2’s effect on ETH burning to rest: Yes, they offer lower gas fees than Ethereum L1 but no, this doesn’t diminish their overall ETH burning effect: While one individual transaction might burn less ETH on L2 than on L1, the cumulative effect is still significant.

  • Since L2 enables far more use cases and consequentially orders of magnitude more transactions than L1, there is also a substantial amount of ETH getting burnt by L2s…

Twitter avatar for @NTmoneyNick Tomaino @NTmoney
$6M+ worth of ETH was burnt on dYdX in Q3 It's not just mainnet activity contributing to the ETH burn and rollups are just warming up 🔥

October 3rd 2021

36 Retweets207 Likes
  • At the same time, we see gas prices in Europe explode. Wait, in Europe? Of course, we are not talking about Ethereum gas fees but the energy crisis in Europe! 😉 Just a reminder that there can also be distruptions and massive price volatility outside of the crypto markets.

Twitter avatar for @ThorstenPolleitThorsten Polleit @ThorstenPolleit
Now let this sink in: European gas price up +895% against av. price seen in 2020.
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October 4th 2021

104 Retweets298 Likes
  • Of course, Crypto Twitter has been fast to jump in with jokes and memes.

Twitter avatar for @ASvanevikAlex Svanevik @ASvanevik
Europeans minting https://t.co/i39vzlIWWU

Thorsten Polleit @ThorstenPolleit

Now let this sink in: European gas price up +895% against av. price seen in 2020. https://t.co/5Bq9wjyVij

October 4th 2021

4 Retweets85 Likes

Web3 Will Eat the Internet

  • For crypto-natives logging into dApps with MetaMask (or another wallet) has become the most natural thing in the world. No more linking of personal data, google or social media accounts. It’s easy to forget that 99% of the internet is yet to be disrupted by Web3 logins.

Twitter avatar for @BrantlyMilleganbrantly.eth @BrantlyMillegan
gm to everyone who can't wait for Sign-In with Ethereum to be everywhere ☀️🥐☕

October 4th 2021

19 Retweets293 Likes
Twitter avatar for @jacksondameDame.eth @jacksondame
the next 100 million users won’t be getting into crypto for crypto — they’ll be getting into it for web3

October 4th 2021

11 Retweets84 Likes

MATIC Farming Is Getting Juicier

  • For everyone bullish on MATIC and thinking about putting his or her MATIC to work: MATIC yield farming is getting more lucrative! On the occasion of Quickswap’s first anniversary, Polygon and Quickswap are ramping up the LP rewards on select farms.

Twitter avatar for @QuickswapDEXQuickSwap @QuickswapDEX
We've got $1 million dollars & we want to give it to you!🤑 🔥@0xPolygon just granted us $1 million dollars in $MATIC. We're using the funds (plus some $QUICK) to offer dual farming rewards for select pairs 🎯We're aiming to drive adoption! 👓Read more:
lda.la/QSPolyGrant
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October 4th 2021

63 Retweets354 Likes

Don’t Miss an Airdrop with This Tool

  • We have told you several times that trying out new protocols in anticipation of retrospective airdrops is a lucrative strategy. But how should you know which protocols to try out? @JeanBrasse_ has created an excellent sheet with numerous potential airdrop candidates.

Putting Axie’s Success Into Perspective

  • Sometimes in crypto, it’s easy to forget how far the space has come in the mere decade of its existence. NFT gaming trailblazer Axie Infinity is probably the most impressive example of a successful crypto project. What the project has achieved since its inception in 2018 (only three years ago…) is simply stunning!

Twitter avatar for @HsakaTradesHsaka @HsakaTrades
$AXS a mere 50% away from being the most valuable video game company ( > Activision, Nintendo, EA) in the world. Get ready for a tsunami of cope addled saline tweets.

Ryan Watkins @RyanWatkins_

Axie Infinity now valued at $30 billion. Would put it among the top 5 most valuable video game companies in the world by market capitalization. https://t.co/KKAaSuHahr

October 4th 2021

60 Retweets466 Likes
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  • It’s mind-boggling to imagine where the blockchain gaming space would be in a few years, with just a bit more time of development… It’s such a disruptive and exponential trend that crypto gaming projects will likely blow all legacy gaming companies completely out of the water – if they don’t jump onto the crypto bandwagon in time.

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