November 29, 2021

The Bounce Is Here – What's Next?

Nov 29, 2021

Introduction

Well, the past few days have been quite the rollercoaster ride… Up, down (a lot), up, down, and up again – that’s the fastest way to describe the last days’ crypto price action.

What was eye-catching this weekend is the sheer amount of bearishness the recent correction has provoked in the crypto community. This time, however, we didn’t just see the usual trend followers and noobs come out of the woodwork to call for caution but also seasoned crypto “big brains”. Of course, optimistic voices are still prevalent as well. So, who is right?

Bear Market Fears Are Reaching Peak Levels

It hasn’t been all sunshine and roses on Crypto Twitter in the last few days. In fact, fear and toxicity have reached levels not seen in months.

Ansem🃏💎 @blknoiz06

if this is ct in chop we better not ever see another bear market bc ppl are losing it already lmao

The main point of contention was: Is the current correction only a precursor for the continuation of the bull market or do we find ourselves at the beginning of a prolonged bearish period? The opinions on that are split.

Ansem🃏💎 @blknoiz06

relief bounce imo, i dont think new highs this year on 97% of tickers

Pickl三S @BitPickles

@blknoiz06 You tell

ceteris @ceterispar1bus

if we go sideways or down next couple months, touch 40k, maybe high 30's i wouldn't be shocked. wouldn't call that a bear market though. also, when light tells you ppl have de-risked, he's not trying to "fud to buy your bags lower", they genuinely have. it's useful info.

ceteris @ceterispar1bus

i don't believe we can't have long bears anymore. if equities can (08-09) then we definitely can, and will. to think otherwise is silly imo. however, i do not think crypto will have a long idiosyncratic bear market without a macro risk-off one. so, that's what you're betting on.

Zhu Su 🔺 @zhusu

He is also the only guy (maybe also @GiganticRebirth ) sounding any kind of alarm over tremendous froth in certain sectors Spot longs w money you can afford to lose are fine; do not put yourself in a position to get wiped out as things continue, make sure you stay in your seat

Zhu Su 🔺 @zhusu

90% of my top signal list that I wrote down in q1 2019 while it was still fresh in my memory are now hit No interest in calling tops for clout or having you sell bottoms for psyops, enough wealth for many lifetimes already Make sure you own things you believe in and wagmi

Pump Truck @TruckPump

So complacency shoulder at 62k ETH ATH then giga puke? Not sure if im being irrationally bearish but I dont like how the market looks

mewny @mewn21

400% of my top signals were hit last year and we still went up i cant read anything anymore. i just think if u hold <good coins> ur ok. crypto isnt going anywhere. its not in "might be a fad" territory like the bera years

Larry Cermak @lawmaster

@mewn21 The most bullish thing is that there are now relatively uncorrelated crypto subsectors that have had their own downturns and mini bull markets. Possible that would all go to shit if BTC tanks for 1y+ but very different from 2017

One thing is clear: If you’re not having a close eye on both fundamentals and technicals in this market, and you’re not able to adapt quickly to new market conditions, there is quite a bit of pain in store...

Ansem🃏💎 @blknoiz06

checking in on the marines

When reading through the opinions of others, it’s important to always keep the following in mind:

𝕯𝖆𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖗 @safetyth1rd

even when others are right, they are often on different time frames, stack size, risk tolerance, than you useful to listen to others(esp those with similar tfs) but develop your own system.

Market Watch

While last Friday’s drop-off certainly has been intense, it’s important to put things into perspective and recognize that most projects are still just a few percent below their highs. Judge for yourself if this means increased risk for further downside or a downplaying of the current correction.

Rekt Capital @rektcapital

#BTC has retraced -23% since the highs which is still less than the -25% retrace in September $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

The bounce today had to be expected since nothing moves in a straight line. The big question, however, is, what comes next? Have we seen the bottom and can go back to full-on bull mode or are we only seeing a “relief rally" today? Well, as seen above, opinions and data are divided on that. Your own risk tolerance and conviction will have to determine how you want to be positioned in this market going forward.

Byzantine General @ByzGeneral

Gm. So CT got bullish at resistance and we can't sustain neutral funding for even one day? Don't like that too much tbh 🤔 $BTC

While MicroStrategy buying Bitcoin certainly creates welcome buy-pressure, at this point, it’s certainly not big news anymore.

Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine

BREAKING — MicroStrategy buys additional 7,002 #Bitcoin for ~$414.4 million

Apart from the prevalent risk for more downside, there are, of course, reasons to be optimistic. Many on-chain metrics and data science models are still looking fairly promising. It’s important though to take such models and fractals with a grain of salt.

_Checkmate.btc 🔑⚡🦬🌋checkonchain.com🌋 @_Checkmatey_

I'm not sure what #Bitcoin bears are going to do with this information, but a clean retest of the STH Realised Price is about as good as it gets for bull market support. If this bounce grows legs, it starts to look quite a lot like 2017. Psychology on-chain. It works well.

TechDev @TechDev_52

There have been 6 major #BTC impulses since 2W RVI was charted from 2011. It's caught the top of every one. Even the rounded one in April. Every full cycle has had 2 peaks. This cycle has had 1. Probability-Based Conclusion: This cycle's 2nd major impulse has not yet topped.

StarkNet Alpha Has Launched

In the wake of the growing excitement for Rollup-scaling solutions in general and ZK-Rollups in particular, StarkWare has launched its highly anticipated StarkNet Alpha today! This release marks a critical step towards fully-fledged ZK-Rollups which pave the way for a highly scalable Ethereum ecosystem. Let’s see how the rollout is being received and especially which projects decide to deploy on StarkNet in the weeks to come.

polynya @epolynya

StarkNet is the most advanced smart contract platform ever committed to prod. No, rather, it will be. This is Alpha for a reason: at the very bleeding edge of blockchain tech. There'll be missing features, centralized training wheels, bugs etc. But we're making a giant leap.

StarkWare @StarkWareLtd

StarkNet Alpha✨ First step on Mainnet ✅ https://t.co/wMKS3QrfqQ https://t.co/s0mr3Tr72R

StarkWare @StarkWareLtd

#StarkNet Alpha on Mainnet means: Developers can deploy their contracts on StarkNet. Users can send txs to these contracts. Each StarkNet block is being proved and verified on-chain. Apps gain unlimited scaling and maintain L1 security.

DeversiFi 🥷 @deversifi

Huge Congratulations to @StarkWareLtd for launching #Starknet today! #DeversiFi was the first project to launch on #Starkware and now we’re going a stage further 👀 We’re building a portal to #StarkNet, @StarkWareLtd first permissionless decentralised zkRollup... (1/3)

Uniswap (Probably) Coming to Polygon

With its fast and cheap sidechain implementation, Polygon is not just a leading Ethereum scaling solution but also a hot contender in the ZK-Rollup race. It’s exciting to see the “DEX king” Uniswap (likely) expand to Polygon soon. For yield farmers, this means safe and potentially attractive pastures coming up soon. However first, some governance hurdles need to be overcome.

Mihailo Bjelic @MihailoBjelic

We initiated Phase 2 (out of 3) of the governance process - Consensus Check: gov.uniswap.org/t/consensus-ch…! We also edited the proposal to specify the financial incentives we are willing to offer: - Up to $15M for liquidity mining - Up to $5M for special purpose DAO Let's do this! 🦄

Mihailo Bjelic @MihailoBjelic

Dear @Uniswap community, We submitted a proposal to deploy Uniswap V3 to @0xPolygon. 😊 We firmly believe this is the right moment for this deployment to happen, for reasons explained in the proposal. Looking forward to your questions and feedback. 🙏 https://t.co/oz84LVdUWj

𝚂𝚌𝚘𝚝𝚝 𝙻Ξ𝚠𝚒𝚜 🌾 @scott_lew_is

uniswap should definitely deploy to polygon. not a close call. if uniswap governance can’t get this right, id call into question the desirability of uniswap style governance as a concept.

Crypto Maxi @cryptoMaxi420

Daily reminder that #Matic isn't just a single POS chain and #Polygon is a full scaling solution suite for #Ethereum Polygon Hermez - zkRollup Polygon Nightfal - Optimistic & zkp rollup Polygon Avail - Data availability network for Volitions Polygon Miden - zkRollup Polygon SDK

Is Crypto Just a Big Scam?

It’s clear that despite the tireless innovation and building by thousands of talented developers and teams, there are still many misconceptions and prejudices about crypto in the mainstream. While it’s certainly true that crypto hasn’t proven its full potential so far and many “killer applications” are yet to reach a critical adoption threshold, there are countless use cases which – already today – change the lives of hundreds of thousands if not millions of people.

Mark Cuban @mcuban

Sure. I call my bank for a loan. I want to borrow $5k against the $10k I have in a multi year CD. Takes some paperwork. A phone call or two. A few days. I go to AAVE.com where I have 10k in ETH. I want to borrow $5k. Takes me about 2 minutes and it’s done

Agnost @Agnost_

@mcuban @smdiehl Then please show us the business case for decentralized applications that isn't tied to gambling or illegal activities. If you have a legitimate use case where a dApp would be the best solution out of all the alternatives, please lay it out for us.

Jack Dorsey Stepping Down as CEO of Twitter

There have been rumors for quite some time and today we got the news that Jack Dorsey is stepping down from his post as Twitter CEO. What impact will this have on Twitter’s Web 3 ambitions now that “Bitcoin-maximalist” Jack Dorsey is not in charge anymore? We’ll have to wait and see.