November 16, 2021

The First Correction in Quite Some Time

Introduction

Well… What we warned of in the last couple of days has now materialized: The first decent correction in the crypto markets in many months is here. Indeed, BTC and ETH have broken their short-term uptrend structures and now find themselves caught between macro support and resistance. Is this only a shakeout before the next move up or has the bull market exhausted itself after all? Let’s look at what’s going on.

𝕯𝖆𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖗 @safetyth1rd

lots of people becoming investors today

Market Watch

• There is no reason to sugarcoat it: BTC's price chart does not look pretty right now, causing a lot of “double top” fears on Crypto Twitter.

Daan Crypto Trades @DaanCrypto

$BTC Market makers are trolling us trying to build the same chart as we had before the May dump. I'll go ahead and say it's PsyOps to scare people out of their coins. We'll likely see a lot of these charts pop up soon. Once again: I DON'T think it will play out like that. ❗️

• After all, it is a simple calculation of supply vs. demand: If more people sell than buy, prices go down. While there are many reasons to believe that new money will enter the crypto space in the coming months and years, it will take some effort to grind through the sell volume of panic sellers and – especially – long-term holders who are taking profits.

Guild of Polymaths @polymathsguild

@blknoiz06 Summer accumulatoors are distributing rn. They are happy to keep selling to trigger panic sells -> mega nuke. Need new buyers to outpace them but not seeing it yet. Until then traders are just gonna continue to rotate and PnD flavor of the day coins.

Jamie Burke ⛺️⛰💯🦧🐇 @jamie247

Sooo much venture money piling into the space. That is money that must be invested Bull or Bear. Think about that.. WAGMI https://t.co/vR3k2NO0HV

Yano @ DAS London @JasonYanowitz

$2.5 billion of new capital coming into crypto VC Congrats @paradigm! https://t.co/JA43cpMdK4

• The good news is Bitcoin has (for now) successfully retested an important weekly support level and is bouncing right now.

Dyme @CryptoParadyme

amazing how a nuke to ~ weekly support and the feed goes insane

• Zooming out also helps to give some perspective on the current price action.

⟠ toast.eth 🦄 @intocryptoast

October 1st $ETH was at $3k. Gotta have a break sometimes!

• The (short-term) bad news is that “buy the dip calls” have been prevalent today and instead of “cleansing” the market from leverage, people jumped into leveraged longs to buy the dip. What can we deduce from that? Irrespective of whether you expect Bitcoin to hit $100k and more this year or to enter a bear market soon, short-term we should be prepared for some more leverage shakeouts and volatility.

Eric Crown @KrownCryptoCave

It appears that we have not learned our lesson

Santiment @santimentfeed

📉 The #dip down to $60.6k is the lowest #Bitcoin has been valued in nine days. The -7% slide in the past 24 hours has been met with rising interest from traders to #buythedip. Typically, a bit of crowd fear will be necessary to have prices fully rebound. app.santiment.net/s/dt3HZCXs?utm…

• Depending on your current positioning, risk profile, and conviction, there are different strategies to buy the dip, but most importantly: Don’t throw all your capital in at the first dip but instead be patient and ladder in your buys in increments.

Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL

Markets do correct in multiple waves. This is the real first corrective move and we don't know whether we're finished yet (as $ETH is just having a harsh correction, breaking trend). Adjust wisely. Don't use all your liquidity on the first dip. Be flexible.

McKenna (¤, ¤) @Crypto_McKenna

One thing I learnt from March is having money on the sidelines is more valuable than having none.

• What is the good that such market corrections bring? Firstly, they help cool down the overall exuberance and leverage in the markets (we’re not just there yet). Secondly, they normally have a soothing effect on Ethereum’s gas fees which in turn lays the basis for a renewed increase in activity and adoption (potentially good for NFTs…). The best analogy is probably a cold shower in a hot summer.

Dame.eth @jacksondame

if this selloff means we stay below 100 gwei gas for awhile it will have been worth it

• And of course, there is another significant benefit that negative price action brings… better memes. 🥲

stockmart👁 | (3,3) @stockmart_

it is scientifically proven that bear memes are funnier than bull memes

• If you are still feeling uneasy about today’s market action, here is some good perspective:

Santiago R Santos | #9159 🦇🔊 @santiagoroel

1/ You always pay attention to markets because prices matter for broader adoption, validation & community-building. End of the day, most of what we do revolves around optimising our ability to live the life we want w/ the people we love. Financial freedom is a key enabler to that

Santiago R Santos | #9159 🦇🔊 @santiagoroel

2/ A day like today, a part of you probably wonders where this all goes. What if this is the start of the bear market? Does the building stop? No Are NFTs a fad? No Are we going back to wire transfers? No Crypto is not perfect but it's captured the imagination of our generation

Santiago R Santos | #9159 🦇🔊 @santiagoroel

3/ This cycle has showed the world the extent of what is possible in Web3. Some use cases may not work out but the idea that anyone can be more fairly compensated for their contributions in this open Web3 canvas is powerful. That idea won't fade anytime soon and drives us forward

• Meanwhile, in many regions of the world, crypto has been the best way for people to protect their money from being inflated away. Perspective is all that matters!

Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm

Dramatic currency depreciation remains the theme in Turkey. #economy #markets #turkey #fx #currency #em #emergingmarkets #investing #investors