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November 12, 2021
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EllioTrades Daily Roundups

November 12, 2021

The Level-Headed Will Win

Oliver Grah
Nov 12, 2021
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November 12, 2021
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Introduction

Today’s mild continuation of the dip has spread quite some nervousness across Crypto Twitter. That shouldn’t be the case if you a) took enough profits during the last weeks’ run-up and b) haven’t extended yourself by “FOMO-buying” in the last few days.

Twitter avatar for @blknoiz06
Ansem🃏🃏 @blknoiz06
this is when everyone nervously tries to figure out if they should sell now since they didnt sell the top or if its just a higher low
10:43 PM ∙ Nov 10, 2021
527Likes30Retweets

If you’re playing this stage of the cycle right and have started laddering out of your positions, you should be able to look at this (normal) volatility without anxiety. Up, down, or sideways – if you’re holding reasonable amounts in high conviction plays, this short-term volatility shouldn’t phase you…

Just remember: The risk vs. reward ratio is nowhere near as favorable right now as it was just a few months ago in June and July – or of course in 2020 and earlier. Does this mean that these increased risk levels should scare you out of the crypto market entirely? Absolutely not, because the odds for a continuation of this bull market are still in our favor. But you also should be smart enough to not throw all of your capital into every dip going forward – because you never know if or when the music stops.

Market Watch

  • We haven’t had a nice correction in the markets since… [checks chart] …September. Of course, many new market participants haven’t even had a taste of a nice crypto dip just yet. And as soon as the majority of investors get complacent, the risk of a “nuke” rises.

  • It didn’t help that the Ethereum Foundation caused a little FUD by selling some ETH (which they have done before).

Twitter avatar for @sassal0x
sassal.eth 🦇🔊🐼 @sassal0x
I'm seeing a lot of people talking about the Ethereum Foundation (EthDev) account sending 20,000 ETH to Kraken and how that's bearish for ETH. Well, the Ethereum network burned 20,000 ETH in just the last ~33 hours. Zoom out and take in some perspective.
10:47 AM ∙ Nov 12, 2021
483Likes35Retweets
  • If you look at Ethereum’s hourly chart, does that look bearish to you? For now, we haven’t even broken the impressive uptrend line which started at the end of September. Are we testing support and shaking out some weak hands? Yes. Is this the end of the bull market? For that to be the case, we would need to see a LOT more downside (and bearish on-chain signals)…

TradingView Chart
  • One sector seems to be doing quite well today despite the scared sentiment: Metaverse and gaming projects.

  • Whenever Bitcoin and Ethereum are in price discovery mode, “top callers” appear on Crypto Twitter after every dip in the market. Let’s try to ignore them and focus on the data instead…

Twitter avatar for @iamDCinvestor
DCinvΞstor @iamDCinvestor
seeing some top-calloooors coming out of the wood work
1:10 PM ∙ Nov 12, 2021
43Likes1Retweet
Twitter avatar for @rektcapital
Rekt Capital @rektcapital
We saw #BTC correct a few times this year: -31% retrace in January -26% retrace in February -18% retrace in March -53% retrace in total through April and July -25% in September People have called for a new Bear Market on each of these retraces $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
2:09 PM ∙ Nov 12, 2021
36Likes8Retweets
  • If you need a reminder: On-chain still looks healthily in “mid bull market mode” as of now.

Twitter avatar for @DegenSpartan
찌 G 跻 じ ( 𝙃𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙖𝙞, 𝙎𝙚𝙣𝙥𝙖𝙞 ) @DegenSpartan
wat mean
Image
Twitter avatar for @glassnode
glassnode @glassnode
#Bitcoin hovers just below ATH, as investor sentiment onchain remains extremely strong Long-Term Holders take modest profits, onchain activity suggests an early stage bull market in play, and hashrate recovers by 95% Read our analysis in The Week Onchain https://t.co/unaRv516PS
1:45 PM ∙ Nov 12, 2021
71Likes6Retweets
  • Weighing pure crypto indicators such as on-chain metrics against macro forces (aka, potential crash scenarios) will be one of the most important but challenging tasks going forward!

Twitter avatar for @biancoresearch
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth @biancoresearch
I'm not calling for a stock market top, but will point out this is what happens at a stock market top.
bloomberg.comBloomberg - Are you a robot?
3:53 PM ∙ Nov 11, 2021
590Likes77Retweets

Bitcoin Overtaking Gold Soon?

  • While there is still a ways to go for Bitcoin (at $1.2 billion market cap) or crypto as a whole (at $3 trillion) to flip gold (at $12 trillion), the trend is definitely going in the right direction. Especially now that GBTC has more capital under management than the world’s largest gold fund!

Twitter avatar for @Blockworks_
Blockworks @Blockworks_
NEW: @Grayscale reached $60 billion AUM and has flipped the world's largest gold fund Via @kerooke
Image
11:38 AM ∙ Nov 11, 2021
812Likes130Retweets

Polkadot Parachain Auctions Are Heating Up

  • After crowdloans for the first round of Polkadot parachain auctions opened up a few days ago, it is now time to watch the showdown and see who is going to win the first slow! It’s also the time to decide if and how you want to contribute.

  • Here are some important stats that can help you make a more informed decision:

Twitter avatar for @hypersphere_
hypersphere @hypersphere_
Polkadot's parachain auctions started today! 9 parachains have announced their crowdloan incentives We calculated the implied fully diluted valuations for crowdloan contributors to break even vs. simply staking their DOTs & earning 14% annualized ahhh we're threading... 🧵
Image
1:25 AM ∙ Nov 12, 2021
303Likes83Retweets
Twitter avatar for @hypersphere_
hypersphere @hypersphere_
Crowdloan participants have so far contributed $2.4B worth of DOTs (5% of DOTs) and the first batch of auctions only started this morning! We have a while to go before the first auction finishes.... 👀
1:25 AM ∙ Nov 12, 2021
  • Given the fact that the parachain auctions will last for several weeks and every week only one winner gets chosen, you don’t need to hurry if you don’t want to participate in the “most crowded” crowdloans (which are clearly Moonbeam and Acala).

Twitter avatar for @hypersphere_
hypersphere @hypersphere_
Background - 5 auctions. 5 weeks. Each week a different winner - 5 parachains go live on @Polkadot Dec 17th - This process repeats for 6 consecutive weeks - 6 additional parachains launch March 11 - Parachain launch != Parachain token TGE (this comes a few weeks after launch)
Image
1:25 AM ∙ Nov 12, 2021
  • You can see that the implied FDVs (Fully Diluted Valuations) differ wildly between the projects and it’s apparent that everyone wants a piece of Moonbeam and Acala!

  • You have to decide for yourself if you want to bet on Moonbeam and Acala becoming the expected massive powerhouses on Polkadot with multibillion valuations and/or spread your bets across high-quality projects with smaller valuations that potential have more growth potential…

Twitter avatar for @hypersphere_
hypersphere @hypersphere_
Based on today’s snapshot # of DOTs contributed, project’s implied FDV to break even vs. simply staking are: - @MoonbeamNetwork: $2.5B - @AcalaNetwork: $1.3B - @AstarNetwork: $310M - @ParallelFi: $342M - @MantaNetwork: $229M
1:25 AM ∙ Nov 12, 2021
14Likes1Retweet
Twitter avatar for @hypersphere_
hypersphere @hypersphere_
If the max DOT contribution (which differs per project) is reached, the implied FDVs to break even vs. staking are: Moonbeam: $13.1B Acala: $3.9B Astar: $2.3B Parallel Finance: $3.5B Manta: $2.5B
1:25 AM ∙ Nov 12, 2021
15Likes4Retweets
Twitter avatar for @hypersphere_
hypersphere @hypersphere_
Even if multiples range even between 5-10x, parachain token’s FDVs relative to their L1 peers will be huge! The top 100 on Coinmarketcap may soon be populated by Polkadot parachains!
1:25 AM ∙ Nov 12, 2021
20Likes2Retweets
  • With the markets being somewhat boring, now is the time to study some of the parachain contenders more deeply and decide whether you want to back them. If you want to read more about the crowdloan process, here is a great resource.

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November 12, 2021
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1 Comment
ybRUBIN
Nov 12, 2021

Excellent issue once again! Is there a link you can provide for Deribit deposit bonus from Elliot that has been mentioned by Krown and Elliot? Can't seem to find it anywhere. Can you respond with it? Thanks!

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