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How Long Will This Bear Market Last?

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EllioTrades Deep Dives

How Long Will This Bear Market Last?

Oliver Grah
May 31, 2022
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How Long Will This Bear Market Last?

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Introduction

In today’s episode, we’ll dive deep into the realm of fortune-telling and tackle the question that is on everyone’s mind: When will this grueling bear market end that is bringing so much financial destruction and negativity among the crypto community? Of course, no one knows with certainty, hence the reference to fortune-telling. However, since our channel tries to formulate theses and frameworks on the basis of facts and deep research, we’ll do our best to dig up the most relevant data out there. Let’s jump in! 

Where We Are Today

  • There is no question that we find ourselves in the middle of a bear market. While we and many other analysts didn’t expect the imminent start of such a vicious bear market towards the end of 2021, in retrospect it was the right call to aggressively take profits and “get some bacon for winter”. After all, winter is exactly what we got – faster and colder than expected. Bull market euphoria quickly turned into bear market pain…

Twitter avatar for @gainzxbt
gainzy @gainzxbt
lmao i remember seeing this sentiment all over in 2021 “ugh i just want a bear market so i can go to sleep” well u’ve got plenty of time to sleep now kiddo, now that ur broke and depressed
Twitter avatar for @hentaiavenger66
hentai avenger @hentaiavenger66
i remember when everyone said that they wished a bear market would come sooner so that they could just sell everything and take a break from their computers lol how'd that work for you
6:25 PM ∙ May 27, 2022
288Likes14Retweets
  • As we pointed out in other episodes, while prices reached new all-time highs last autumn, from an on-chain distribution perspective, this current bear market arguably already started last April/May! What we witnessed in the following months, is the recycling of existing capital within crypto: From one L1 ecosystem to another, then the Metaverse narrative heated up, and finally capital cycled back to NFTs once all the juice seemed squeezed out from altcoins in early 2022.

Twitter avatar for @TXMCtrades
TXMC @TXMCtrades
@dj_mr_nobody I consider April the true peak and Nov a deviation. Q1 2021 compared to Q3: Lower on-chain transaction counts, lower RSI, lower spot volumes (see Coinbase), less imbalance to long side in perp futures. The pump was weaker than the one nine months prior, and it died swiftly.
2:53 PM ∙ May 22, 2022
  • This money cycling behavior is typical for the transition from a bull to a bear market and we also witnessed it in a major way during the ICO craze of 2018.

  • Looking at prices, we can see that they have come down significantly across the board. While last year’s “hot” L1s like Cardano, Fantom and Solana have all corrected between 80 and 90 %, many small caps got absolutely eviscerated with some being down over 99%. The only coins holding up better – as we would expect them to do during a bear market – are Bitcoin and Ethereum, down 57 % and 63 % respectively. 

  • It’s clear: You don’t wanna hold risky altcoins during a bear market and even if a coin is down 80 %, there is a high probability that it will crash another 50-90 %. 

Twitter avatar for @intocryptoverse
Benjamin Cowen @intocryptoverse
#Altcoins are not great during bear markets. Not only do their #USD valuations get crushed, but also their #ALT / #BTC valuations.
3:58 PM ∙ May 4, 2022
1,137Likes77Retweets
Twitter avatar for @dilutionproof
Dilution-proof @dilutionproof
The #bitcoin market dominance (⬛️ & ⬜️) during bull runs (🟩) & bear markets (🟥) During the last few (mini-)cycles, altcoins briefly take off after the #bitcoin price tops (e.g., Jan '18, Apr '21), but can bleed against it during more extensive 🐻 markets (e.g., '18-'19)
Image
11:21 AM ∙ May 29, 2022
10Likes3Retweets
Twitter avatar for @DefiDividends
Defi Dividends @DefiDividends
How many coins survived through a full bear market and was a part of a main narrative for both bull cycles? Meaning, was around in 2017/2021 and was a main narrative both cycles ETH, BTC and maybe LINK? Odds are not with you if you are buying alts right now imo
2:08 AM ∙ May 24, 2022
252Likes23Retweets
  • Of course, we also have to mention that this bear market already took a big toll on DeFi and “non bear market proof” Ponzi schemes like the Terra ecosystem which has sadly collapsed and hurt many people badly.

  • You can see that the TVL in DeFi has halved from over $200 to just $100 billion in a few weeks… Is DeFi dead? We will tackle this question in a separate article. 

The Recent Decoupling From Stocks

  • Now that we have assessed the damage already done to crypto prices and the overall ecosystem, let’s get to the important question: How long will this pain last? Because after all, retrospect is interesting but we can only act in the present moment. As our friend Darius put it: It’s all about the Next Play!

  • In order to leave this grueling bear market behind us, there are two ways: Either crypto and legacy financial markets bottom at the same time and resume their multi-decade uptrend. Or, crypto decouples from equities.

  • While we all hope for the latter to happen, the last few days have shown signs of a decoupling we certainly didn’t hope for. Despite crypto generally performing better than stocks during the downturn of recent months, the last few days have shown an unfortunate trend change: Crypto has been showing significant relative weakness.

Twitter avatar for @0xSisyphus
Sisyphus @0xSisyphus
further decorrelation to the downside for BTC, but *especially* for altcoins feels like the market makers turned off the correlation algo and just letting people puke out their holdings now
1:48 PM ∙ May 27, 2022
167Likes4Retweets
Twitter avatar for @krugermacro
Alex Krüger @krugermacro
Crypto is now an imperfect high beta instrument. Bigger idiosyncratic component (risk) until things normalize. Could be next week, could be in two months. Don't know.
Twitter avatar for @alltejuupptaget
David @alltejuupptaget
@krugermacro What implications do you see from this?
3:15 PM ∙ May 26, 2022
45Likes3Retweets
Twitter avatar for @gainzxbt
gainzy @gainzxbt
Narrator: it wasn’t.
Twitter avatar for @BarrySilbert
Barry Silbert @BarrySilbert
The decoupling is going to be magnificent
1:48 PM ∙ May 27, 2022
402Likes16Retweets
  • At this point, we can only hope that this decoupling of recent days is only a blip and that crypto can catch up with stocks that are generally bouncing as of late.

  • However, in the long term, every seasoned crypto investor is hoping for crypto to regain its status as an uncorrelated asset class that’s not manipulated by legacy actors (or do we just want “number to go up” regardless of what stocks do?...) In order to form a thesis if, when and how crypto might decouple from stocks in the long run, we have to talk about the elephant in the room:

The Fed – the New Boogeyman

  • There is no question: You could look at adoption and on-chain metrics all-day long but if you hadn’t anticipated the massive impact the Fed’s policy U-turn would have on financial markets (and yes that includes crypto) then you were likely blindsided by the last months of bearish price action. In retrospect things seem pretty obvious: Once the Fed signaled that they would turn the “money printer” off last November, things were starting to look dire for risk assets.

Twitter avatar for @perfiliev
Sergei Perfiliev 🇺🇦 @perfiliev
Everybody is a disruptive innovator until the Fed pulls the plug.
12:46 PM ∙ May 24, 2022
2,318Likes323Retweets
  • Of course, all of this was caused by the highest inflation the Western world has seen in many decades – which in turn was caused by massive money printing as well as supply shocks. It’s only because of high and persisting inflation numbers that central banks had to stop their easy money policy and start fighting the new enemy number one.

  • On the flip side, the million-dollar question now is: When will the Fed U-turn again? Getting this answer right likely equates to the biggest play you can make as an investor in the coming years…

  • In the short term, there are no signs that a Fed U-turn is in sight: Inflation is still near its highs and the economy is not slowing enough to signal the Fed to stop tightening (yet). So the question remains: What is already priced in and how much pain do we have to expect? 

Twitter avatar for @DegenSpartan
찌 G 跻 じ Goblin 𝙎𝙚𝙣𝙥𝙖𝙞 of the 𝙃𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙖𝙞 @DegenSpartan
typical signs of a bottom: none so far ✅
6:20 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
1,110Likes46Retweets
Twitter avatar for @lawhon_sam
Sam Lawhon @lawhon_sam
•Liquidity at decade lows •VIX barely moving •Bond vol historically high None of these factors indict “the bottom is in” $SPX $NDX
5:03 PM ∙ May 20, 2022
24Likes2Retweets
  • While the “risk” of a bear market rally is always there, especially after non-stop selling and fear as we have witnessed in recent weeks, it’s important to not miss the bigger picture – which in the mid-term doesn’t signal that the pain is over.

Twitter avatar for @KobeissiLetter
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter
Key bear market rallies: 1. 2008: 5 rallies averaging 14% 2. 2001: 6 rallies averaging 17% 3. 1980: 3 rallies averaging 12% 4. 1973: 3 rallies averaging 15% 8+ rate hikes into a declining economy. 8% off the low and calls for all time highs are back. Classic relief bounce.
4:48 PM ∙ May 27, 2022
643Likes124Retweets
Twitter avatar for @AnilVohra1962
AnilVohra1962 @AnilVohra1962
Equity bulls don’t realize how harmful this powerful rally is to their long term interests. The Fed is on a mission to tame wild animal spirits. This week has only proven that they are alive and well. This will only harden Fed’s resolve to bring it under control.
12:21 AM ∙ May 29, 2022
38Likes3Retweets
Twitter avatar for @BomsteinRick
Rick Bomstein @BomsteinRick
The market just rallied 7% in four days because everyone became convinced the Fed will pivot The Fed has said *nothing* to this effect. But they have said they think it’s important to bring down asset prices I’m sure bidding up garbage will convince them to go easy
1:36 PM ∙ May 28, 2022
247Likes26Retweets
  • In fact, the effects of Quantitative Tightening by the Fed which starts on June 1, haven’t even kicked in yet…

Twitter avatar for @MetreSteven
Steven Van Metre 👑 @MetreSteven
They say don't fight the Fed... As investors buy every dip hoping for a Bear market rally while the Fed is rapidly draining liquidity. QT starts in 5 trading days.
7:55 PM ∙ May 24, 2022
1,282Likes151Retweets
Twitter avatar for @INArteCarloDoss
Kitty Kitty gang bang (Carlo Casio) @INArteCarloDoss
Show hasn’t started yet folks. Some scams imploded in ‘21 and ‘22 - think Hwang, Luna, Greensill. Some low hanging shitco equity got wiped-out. Some gentle lift-off in credit spreads. Some housing inventory moves. That’s nothing. Just starting. Low hanging fruits so far
Implosion Collapse GIF
12:52 PM ∙ May 25, 2022
393Likes28Retweets
  • So, what would signal to us that a Fed reversal and with it the bottom of this bear market is near? There are two different scenarios: 

    • Either inflation comes down so quickly back towards 2 % that the Fed can naturally stop tightening. This is VERY unlikely and most forecasts suggest that inflation – while peaking – will remain well above 3-4% into 2023. So, no signal from inflation for the Fed to stop anytime soon.

    • The more probable scenario is that while the Fed keeps tightening in the weeks and months to come, financial conditions will continue to deteriorate, raising the risk of a severe recession or something “blowing up”. In fact, we have already seen credit spreads (a sign of the inherent risk within the financial system & economy) widen substantially in recent weeks. If something in the credit market or economy “breaks” (just like it did in 2020), then the Fed would likely have to stop what they are doing. So, it all comes down to monitoring financial conditions and the communication by the Fed this summer…

    • As Darius Dale puts it: “It is likely we are only in the middle innings of the bear market in high beta risk assets. With the Fed unlikely to receive any signals from either the labor market or inflation statistics to stop tightening monetary policy for at least another quarter (perhaps 2-3), it is likely financial conditions must tighten considerably to force a dovish pivot.”

Twitter avatar for @Tyler_Rongione
Tyler Rongione @Tyler_Rongione
It does not pay to over complicate investing ❌💰 The market is trending down until the Feds ambulance 🚑 arrives (& they’re out to a long lunch) - Don’t outsmart yourself Having cash on hand is the best buffer 🛡
Twitter avatar for @42macroDDale
Darius Dale @42macroDDale
@Tyler_Rongione Wayyy too many folks trying to play for a bounce in light of that. The “brilliance” of Fin-Twit capital destruction continues…
12:42 PM ∙ May 24, 2022
16Likes4Retweets

Fed Tightening Is Not “the Last Shoe to Drop”

  • An important point to remember is that the Fed is not the only boogeyman spooking asset markets right now. In fact, the Fed only induced this crisis. However, after liquidity dwindles, serious problems can arise for the economy and company earnings. In simplified terms: 

    • The Fed removes money from the system -> financial conditions tighten -> people can afford less spending –> the economy slows down –> company earnings shrink -> asset markets tank

  • While we have witnessed quite some pain in recent months, we haven’t priced in these recessionary earnings dynamics yet… Macro analyst Darius Dale explains it well in this Tweet:

Twitter avatar for @42macroDDale
Darius Dale @42macroDDale
A: It’s always both. And you need to understand both to TIME markets well. Per our analysis, we are in inning ~5 of the #LiquidityCycle downturn, inning ~4 of the #GrowthCycle downturn, and inning ~3 of the #ProfitsCycle downturn. Conclusion: we are still very much in #STFR mode. https://t.co/zB0bjyNmXl
Twitter avatar for @BFairclough23
Ben Fairclough @BFairclough23
@42macroDDale major downside moves in $SNAP, $WMT, $NFLX, $META, $TGT etc. How much of the moves do you believe is lack of liquidity vs. fundamentals?
5:43 AM ∙ May 25, 2022
51Likes8Retweets
  • The current bounce in markets is clearly signaling that the Fed-induced negative “liquidity cycle” is nearing its final stages. However, brace for more damage in financial markets once data shows our economy is on the brink of recession. Q2 earnings season could get… interesting.

Some Thoughts on “Timing the Bottom”

  • Timing cycles is extremely hard. Especially once strong trending phases like we have seen during the first months of this year are over and markets enter a more prolonged sideways range, it’s hard to get a clear picture of the markets. Key points here are surviving and staying patient. Bear markets don’t entail prices crashing non-stop. They can also go sideways, grind up and down for an extended period.

Twitter avatar for @krugermacro
Alex Krüger @krugermacro
Bitterness and the belief one can easily predict the future are highly correlated.
12:10 PM ∙ May 25, 2022
105Likes6Retweets
  • What makes this market downturn different from many others, the March 2020 crash, for example, is that we have no clear event signaling the start and end of the price crash. While we got the pandemic and then massive easing by central banks in 2020, we now find ourselves in a more structural bear market, with liquidity and growth hindering price growth. While inflation remains elevated, there is no clear “switch” that will signal a V-bottom reversal. Instead, we will probably go through a prolonged phase of prices grinding lower and higher with some vicious crashes and hope rallies sprinkled in.

Twitter avatar for @DegenSpartan
찌 G 跻 じ Goblin 𝙎𝙚𝙣𝙥𝙖𝙞 of the 𝙃𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙖𝙞 @DegenSpartan
that was the bottom right
Image
3:38 PM ∙ May 26, 2022
651Likes39Retweets

Comparing This Bear Market to the Last One

  • This bear market has shown once again that “history doesn’t repeat but it rhymes”. In fact, we have followed the typical 4-year cycles once again. 

Twitter avatar for @0xfoobar
foobar @0xfoobar
Disappointed that the current rate hike timing & global liquidity crunch will give more cannon fodder to the 4-year cycle astrologers Do better, jerome
5:27 PM ∙ Jan 22, 2022
50Likes2Retweets
  • Is the Bitcoin 4-year halving cycle still a thing or are macro factors overriding this once almost religiously significant price catalyst? From today’s standpoint it’s hard tell because of the complexity and interplay of factors. Supply and demand are driven by different forces (e.g. miner emissions vs. Fed liquidity). However, it’s a fact: So far, the 4-year cycles have still held up… According to the 4-year cycles, we could expect the bottom of this bear market to occur sometime late this year. This magically coincides with the “macro turnaround“ as estimated by Darius Dale.

Bitcoin halving analysis hints at $24K bottom before the end of 2022
  • There are two big differences between this bear market to previous ones: 

    • 1. There was no “blow-off top” signaling the top of the bull market (speaking for the increased efficiency and maturation of the crypto market).

    • 2 The percentage returns of the last bull market were significantly lower than during the last cycles, deviating strongly from most expert estimates and data science models.

  • The conclusion? The market always finds a way to surprise the maximum number of people… There is no free lunch in investing!

Twitter avatar for @Fiskantes
fiskantes.lens (⭐️,🩸) @Fiskantes
Bull market is easy mode. Bear market is when you either bend or break.
12:45 PM ∙ May 27, 2022
49Likes3Retweets
  • To end this article, let’s look at some interesting comparisons between the current and the last cycle:

Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar In 2017, uncertainty from the high failure ratio from the ICO era, the overleveraged individual investor profile, and doubts about imminent regulations created the perfect landscape for a crypto winter. Is history bound to repeat itself?
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
3Likes1Retweet
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar The crypto space was undergoing its first notable expansion phase in 2017, fuelled by the ICO boom that lead up to the first major bull run in December of that year. By the end of 2017, only 104 dapps were live when total crypto market cap reached $800B for the first time.
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar The lack of regulations and the excessive capital thrown at underachieving projects quickly turned the nascent industry unsustainable. It is estimated that 90% of the projects conceived during the ICO era failed less than six months after launch.
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar Around the time of $BTC’s all-time high of ~$20k, the first Bitcoin-based futures were launched on the CME, the world’s largest derivatives exchange. Institutional investors shorted Bitcoin en masse, applying unprecedented selling pressure to the digital asset.
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar But we as an industry were not done. The projects leading the blockchain space kept committed to building and enhancing their products despite the downward trend. The foundations of the industry as we know it today were laid during this period.
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar DeFi summer in 2020 saw a plethora of projects showcasing the potential of a decentralized financial ecosystem. The interest in the blockchain industry was back. Adoption, consumer confidence, and capital invested all rose, fuelling the start of the next bull run.
Image
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar The industry's three main categories – DeFi, NFTs, and games, showed exponential growth through most of 2021, luring millions of new users and billions in investments. The DeFi space saw the value locked within its contracts surpass $200B across all protocols in November 2021.
Image
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar NFTs also exploded as the space generated over $22B in trading volume last year. Collections like CryptoPunks and BAYC became a cultural phenomenon with the power of attracting celebrities and brands into the space.
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar In November of last year, the blockchain industry reached its current ceiling. The cryptocurrency market cap surpassed $2.8T as $BTC reached $69k, growing 360% in one year. $ETH and the majority of the crypto market also peaked in the same month.
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar Fast forward to 2022, and the industry is in a much better position than four years ago. Hundreds of dapps attract over 2.5 million daily active wallets across more than 50 blockchain ecosystems.
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
2Likes1Retweet
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar From a macro perspective, the situation is much different than in 2018 though. The negative effects accentuated by the war in Ukraine present a severe challenge to global markets.
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar In addition, the early-year suspicions about the Fed’s imminent interest rate hikes to counter rising inflation were confirmed a few weeks ago when the @federalreserve raised interest rates by 0.5% for the first time in two years.
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar @federalreserve The S&P 500 is off to its worst start since WWII, and inflation has reached levels not seen in almost 50 years. The sum of these macroeconomic factors is leading the markets into what looks like a recession.
Image
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar @federalreserve Despite the impressive evolution that the industry has seen over the last four years, Bitcoin has lost 55% of its value since its all-time high in November. The recent @terra_money situation put even more pressure on the already bleeding crypto market.
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar @federalreserve @terra_money So, is winter coming? There are noticeable differences when comparing the series of factors that caused a crypto winter in 2018 and what we are seeing right now.
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar @federalreserve @terra_money Firstly, the blockchain industry has gone from a small group of siloed networks to a series of interconnected ecosystems attracting millions of daily users. DeFi, NFTs, and games have each flourished into multi-billion dollar verticals.
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar @federalreserve @terra_money The awareness for the space is higher than ever. The investor profile went from mostly retail investors to large institutions and corporations with more economic power. Bitcoin has been adopted as legal tender, and might even act as a hedge for countries facing hyperinflation.
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar @federalreserve @terra_money As significant as the blockchain industry has become, challenges remain. The collapse of Terra brought the sector down to its knees. The trust levels in algorithmic stablecoins and the space in general could discourage smart money from entering the weakened DeFi space
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
2Likes1Retweet
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar @federalreserve @terra_money Security and regulations are other topics that require special attention as soon as possible. In addition to these challenges inherent to the blockchain, the record high correlation between stock and crypto markets presents another burden.
Image
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar @federalreserve @terra_money As a recession seems more probable by the day, the short-term outlook for the capital markets does not look promising. A crypto winter is likely already upon us, despite the impressive maturity of the dapp industry and the accelerated expansion of the Web3 community.
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar @federalreserve @terra_money However, due to the level of adoption, the interest in the industry shouldn’t decrease as much as in 2018. Bitcoin, NFTs, and other cryptos should continue to be demanded as a new class of digital assets with unique economic properties.
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar @federalreserve @terra_money It is necessary to consider that the crypto market is composed of cycles. It's unsustainable for any industry to maintain constant growth. Consolidation and capitulation cycles are healthy to create financial stability within the markets.
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar @federalreserve @terra_money Quoting @elonmusk, “Recessions are not necessarily a bad thing. I’ve been through a few of them. And what tends to happen is if you have a boom that goes on too long, you get a misallocation of capital. It starts raining money on fools.”
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
Twitter avatar for @DefiantNews
The Defiant @DefiantNews
@DappRadar @federalreserve @terra_money @elonmusk For newcomers, a crypto winter might feel like the bubble has burst, but the truth is it is not. Although the space is about to endure its first recession, the maturity showcased across multiple verticals has the crypto space in a good position to resist a prolonged bear market.
3:25 AM ∙ May 27, 2022
12Likes2Retweets
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How Long Will This Bear Market Last?

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