December 31, 2021

Ending the Year with a (Small) Bounce

Introduction

It seems like the crypto community has already checked out for the year because there is absolutely nothing going on – no hot news, no debates, no controversy…

Before we jump into today’s content, I wanted to wish everyone a very happy new year – may it be as exciting and profitable as 2021!

Market Watch

• At least price-wise, it seems like the bears are showing some mercy on the last day of the year, with the crypto market bouncing moderately from yesterday’s lows. Especially DeFi is finally getting some love after being beaten down for months and almost entirely skipping the altcoin bull market in the second half of 2021.

• It seems like options expiring today was the primary catalyst for this week’s price action. Only up from here?

Byzantine General @ByzGeneral

Expiration at pretty much exactly max pain price of Deribit options. I think the bull case just got a little stronger.

Byzantine General @ByzGeneral

MAX PAIN IS... Oh it's... It's exactly where we are right now. $BTC https://t.co/x7kwGG5md9

light @lightcrypto

expiry and then up

TheSkyhopper @TheSkyhopper

In @DeribitExchange Option-Land, 2021 is gone and 2022 is in. Pre-and post Max Pain on #bitcoin pricing. Potential energy (capped by expiries, gamma) turning into kinetic energy. Gotta think we do see 50,000+ first week of 2022.

• The last weeks’ sentiment on Crypto Twitter could make one believe that we have entered a brutal bear market with prices crashing to new lows on a daily basis. If you zoom out and look at the charts, however, you can see that after the initial liquidation dump, prices have just consolidated in a large sideways channel…

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

So much emotion, ego trip and bull/bear argument What market actually did:

• We have outlined several times recently that the crypto market will likely look quite different in 2022, with less overall money printing by central banks driving up asset prices, a new crypto cycle framework (lengthening cycles?), many projects and important updates finally shipping (think the Merge, innovations in the NFT space or hotly anticipated crypto games) and an overall structural shift of the crypto market. To end the last post of the year, let’s conclude with some more fresh outlooks for 2022:

ceteris @ceterispar1bus

2022 will be know as "the great subsidy era". all this vc money, ecosystem funds, competing l1's... will be a lot of places to get paid to be a user as user acquisition will be aggressive.

GCR @GiganticRebirth

Market is going to get much more efficient in 2022 with influx of talent pouring in Total marketcap could rise and wud still anticipate ppl make less money due to heightened competition from every Ivy grad now realizing this is the arena Sharpen your blade if you have an edge

dcinvestor.eth @iamDCinvestor

in 2022, pay less attention to what fund managers are telling you about crypto and more attention to what creators and users are telling you about crypto change, and adoption, are coming

Zhu Su 🔺 @zhusu

My prediction for 2022: the year of mass adoption Your mental framework should be Amara's law, not hypercyclicality Emerging technologies are overestimated in short run and underestimated in long run 2017-2019 period of overestimation 2020-2030 period of underestimation

mewny @mewn21

can u believe its almost 2022 and we dont have a fully decentralized nft marketplace yet lmao