December 30, 2021

Waiting for December to End

Introduction

With crypto prices still in limbo and susceptible to erratic price swings due to the super-low volume on exchanges, at this point, most crypto holders are probably longing for the beginning of the new year. Not just can we then put all tax harvesting FUD to rest, but we can focus on the likeliest short-term hopium for crypto: Institutional reaccumulation.

Roshun Patel @roshunpatel

48 hours before dec expiry

Santiago Velez @Santiag78758327

@ThinkingCrypto1 Hedge funds are a blessing & a curse. End of year rebalancing for crediting gains, harvesting losses, & making sure they bonuses paid is likely a huge factor. January should see a resumption if the macro environment allows (which may mean we've turned the tide towards deflation).

Market Watch

• It’s clear, looking at prices hasn’t been particularly pleasurable as of late. While the weakness in crypto prices is pronounced, so far, we haven’t broken the “flush lows” of the last major liquidation event. Thus, patience is key to assessing where we go next.

Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL

Pretty boring markets lately. Just a process of bottoming out for #Bitcoin. We're retesting $46K as support, bounced, but we might need to take the liquidity beneath the lows before we're going to make some upwards runs again.

Byzantine General @ByzGeneral

We had a bit of a long shakeout but honestly not that much yet. $BTC and $ETH still look sketchy. 3500 for ETH and 45000 for BTC should still look like levels with demand though, for now at least.

• The current “sketchy” outlook is reinforced by the fact that BTC exchange deposits have been increasing significantly in the last hours. Is that a precursor to more pain or a sign that capitulation is near?

glassnode alerts @glassnodealerts

📈 #Bitcoin $BTC Number of Addresses Sending to Exchanges (7d MA) just reached a 7-month high of 6,979.786 View metric: studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&…

• On the bright side, we can still observe rather strong hodling behavior by long-term holders, likely putting a floor under Bitcoin’s price. That doesn’t mean that we have to shoot straight back up (since for that, you also need buying pressure), but at least it should limit downside risk to a degree.

Will Clemente @WClementeIII

The average age of the BTC being spent is declining. Smart money (older/more experienced market participants) sell tops, not bottoms. The last few weeks they aren't selling.

Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact

@PositiveCrypto I like this metric. It doesn't rule out a lengthy consolidation though, if new demand just isn't there. Bulls and bears can kind of see whatever they want to see with this metric, although it does start setting up a rising period of supply tightness.

b.biddles @thalamu_

everything i'm looking at still says smart money buying dumb money selling so i'm following suit -- but tbh this market is so thin that one big seller who's smart money can change things. so always a bit on edge.

b.biddles @thalamu_

this also doesn't mean we can't go lower and still be bullish. smart money DCAs over a period where conditions are ripe for as long as they're ripe. and then starts offloading as soon as price starts pumping and conditions flip.

• As we mentioned yesterday, our biggest short-term bull case right now is that institutional investors who have been aggressively rebalancing their portfolios in the last few weeks will start reaccumulating crypto with fresh books in the new year.🤞🏻

Tony Stewart @PelionCap

Expect New Year parties to briefly thin out around midnight if inviting anyone from a large Crypto Fund. Unwilling pre-EOY deleveraging, +opportunity for aggressive (🍾 enhanced) window dressing +NY re-allocation +Capital inflow may cause fireworks on the hour across time zones.

Deribit Insights @DeribitInsights

1) Santa rally fading, BTC Dec31 46k Puts bought, anecdotal rumblings of Tradfi LP allocation audits into EOY, making for a captivating finale as Dec31 Options roll and completely detach into Jan bullishness: Jan7 50-53k Call spread, Jan28 55k Calls + Jan 1x2 Call spreads bought. https://t.co/n0zVf65DMw

light @lightcrypto

January likely begins with over-eager retail shorts getting lit up.

• One way or another, at this point of the cycle, some real talk for anyone who missed out on the gains in 2021 and wants to “make it” next year is appropriate…

0xbbfa (f@t, fck) @0xbbfa

Brutal truth is: If you didn’t spend the bull market accumulating a stable stack that can help you be financially independent, and do not have any real hireable skills beyond pure speculation… If a rough bear market comes ur back to square 1

0xbbfa (f@t, fck) @0xbbfa

For every person that used crypto to “make it” from an uneducated bg w 0 real skills, there are at least 15 who thought crypto was their big brake and decided to ignore everything else. Know how to short anything, including your own luck.

Josh Elman @joshelman

With Web3, it’s ok to believe to things at the same time: (1) digital money and digitally verifiable ownership can transform so many patterns, networks, and economies we rely on (2) the current hype and speculation is very far ahead of any of that reality

Gautam Chhugani @gautamchhugani

To do well in crypto, you need to be spiritually aligned with the movement. It is not simply slapping on tokens, NFTs & number goes up. This is what outsiders think we are doing! Crypto is about rebuilding the foundations ground up block by block.

Matty @DCLBlogger

I mean this with kindness, Most people I’ve seen enter the NFT space are “dabblers”. They try a little this, a little that, come when the hype is here, leave when it’s quiet and thus end up with mediocre results, 1/

Matty @DCLBlogger

2/ For many who’ve “made it”, this was not a side thing. It was THE thing. Not saying quit your job/commitments and go all in, Saying, the more you experiment, participate, lead with new thoughts/innovative ideas, the more opportunities you’ll uncover.

• At the same time, crypto rewards the brave more often than not. So with seemingly maximum fear in the markets right now, it’s likely a more opportune time to DCA into the market compared to the euphoric bull run phases in spring and autumn.

Do Kwon 🌕 @stablekwon

Crypto is a darwinian game that filters those panic in crashes - learn to enjoy crashes as removal of competition