December 17, 2021

Peak Fear and Wild Price Action

Introduction

Another day full of volatility and fear lies soon behind us, and again, stock and crypto markets have tumbled hand in hand, followed by a relatively strong bounce from the lows. It’s clear: Nervousness in the investor community is still sky-high – but “buy the dip” mentality as well.

At this point in time, the fate of crypto prices is – unfortunately – strongly linked to the health of equity markets. As you can see in the charts below, today’s price action of BTC and the S&P 500 has been almost identical.

One small comfort we find amid the strong correlation between crypto and stock markets is that Ethereum has been bleeding less than tech stocks…

light @lightcrypto

Out of this world relative strength, ETHUSD (blue) vs NASDAQ (white):

If you have been reading this newsletter for some time now, you have surely not been surprised by the increased volatility of the last weeks, as we indicated that the Fed’s hawkish pivot, combined with a slowing economy, could lead to a very shaky market.

Does that mean that everything will only go down from here? No, because despite the immense uncertainty all around, the chance of dip buyers stepping in and supporting the markets is still fairly high. We would likely need more cataclysmic events to send the stock markets down to tremendous new lows – which is, of course, always a possibility.

All in all, the current investing climate is certainly not for the faint-hearted, and you should be prepared for more rollercoaster rides in the weeks ahead!

Market Outlook

• The last weeks’ market downturn has undoubtedly left some scars on crypto bulls. However, technically, the weekly uptrend and the hope for renewed bullish price action are not lost…

Pentoshi 🔺satsdarts lover @Pentosh1

GM nothings changed on $BTC Building Longs 42-47 Bears still in full control and marching forward. Leaving no survivors on each bull defense. They have the city surrounded. Losing 40.7-42k would signal the start of a new regime Only those that play offense + defense thrive https://t.co/wFzmlurSii

Pentoshi 🔺satsdarts lover @Pentosh1

$BTC 4hr, 1D + 1W Still a ton of work to do for any reversal Lot of diag resistance and Structural resistance Below EMA's on 1D Below 21 EMA on weekly Obviously been building long pos. Would still love one last flush Want to play alts heavy w/ strong Market struc (very few do https://t.co/RpT90btsRg

• We continue to see a “battle” between – likely institutional – crypto sellers on Coinbase and accumulating crypto whales on Bitfinex.

Byzantine General @ByzGeneral

CB has been pretty aggro. I think 45k definitely isn't out of the question. $BTC

Byzantine General @ByzGeneral

I'm still of the opinion that this range is accumulation though. CB, Nancy and Finex all trying to catch a bid in low 40Ks and this looks real to me. Very similar behaviour as the May-July range.

• Will institutional selling be exhausted soon, with today marking the last trading day for many funds?

IamNomad @IamNomad

OTC flows all this week have all been people tapering their positions. Today marks the final day of the year for many funds and corps. I dont have a feel if that means for the market. historically we've the gambit of price action during the holidays w/ Q1 setting a new trend.

IamNomad @IamNomad

ape translation : business people sell for tax man and santa. price has done all kinda of shit in between christmas and new years.

Wild Stories Only Crypto Can Produce

• What a crazy day it has been – not just price-wise but also when it comes to other emerging stories. First, Justin Sun resigned as the CEO of the Tron foundation in order to become an ambassador to the Caribbean island nation Grenada... Then notorious crypto-hater Brad Sherman lauded the Mongoose community for donating to tornado victims… 🤯

lito @litocoen

this must be the weirdest thing that happened this year

H.E. Justin Sun @HEjustinsun

I have accepted the invitation and appointment of the Grenadian Gov. to officially serve as the Ambassador, Permanent Representative of #Grenada to the World Trade Organization in #Geneva. I will be working in full capacity to represent Grenada’s national interests, to the @WTO https://t.co/9Ke37rD7KQ

Rep. Brad Sherman @BradSherman

I may not agree with everyone in the crypto community, or the emerging mongoose community, on each aspect of financial services regulation. But all of us are united in our concern for the people of Kentucky. (1/2)

Mongoose Coin $mong 🏛 @mongoosecoineth

🏛 MONGRESS ANNOUNCEMENT 🏛 The Mongress is thinking of every family affected in the Kentucky Tornado. Our hearts are with you so we’ve made a donation to help with the Western Kentucky Relief Fund. 1/3 https://t.co/sOiXVK34CM

TRVL Airdrop

• If you are currently holding Travala’s AVA token, you are eligible for a TRVL airdrop. Don’t forget to submit your wallet today!

Travala.com @travalacom

Attention $ava holders the time is near. First $TRVL airdrop snapshot will be in 72 hours. Smart members will share in 500,000 tokens

A Gaming Project to Have on Your Radar

• Yes, gaming tokens have cooled down quite significantly after their huge run in autumn. While we don’t know if prices will come roaring back soon, it’s surely more interesting to look at new gaming projects when the overall hype has calmed down.

• An interesting, brand-new project to look out for is Fancy Games DAO. Check out the thread below to learn more!

Disclaimer: With the $FNC token launching today and the overall market environment being rather uncertain, be aware of the risks involved with investing in new projects like these.

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

Let's talk about an upcoming GameFi project originated from a tweet. Becoming an ecosystem backed by top-tier guilds @MeritCircle_IO + @YieldGuild, VC @hiFramework, and angels @santiagoroel, @0xMaki and @kaiynne. Enter Fancy Games DAO and their *1st game* Fancy Birds $FNC 🧵

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

2/ Back in September, @KieranWarwick asked the relevant question: Why is there no Play-to-earn variant of Flappy Bird, a viral internet sensation which became the most downloaded mobile game in 2013? Very valid question.

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

3/ A few months later, Fancy Games DAO sets to release Fancy Birds in Q1 2022, is backed by industry veterans, partnered with @illuviumio, and IDO-ed their $FNC token on Copperlaunch from this Tuesday 14 December:

Fancy Birds | Play2Earn @Fancybirdsio

1/ Announcing the Fancy Games Public Token Launch Auction on @CopperLaunch for $FNC https://t.co/hn6fS2W7Ks https://t.co/nsIoRZAGnY

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

4/ TL/DR about Flappy Birds, it was a viral mobile side-scroller created back in 2013 that took the internet by storm. The objective is to fly and not hit any obstacles. It was one of the first casual mini-games that went viral on mobile and was the most downloaded game in 2013.

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

5/ What's so intriguing about Fancy Games? Unlike most P2E launched games or upcoming, Fancy Games targets the casual gaming niche for their games. The target audience isn't the 6-8 hour work grinders like in @AxieInfinity, but casual players with 15-30min of free time a day.

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

6/ Why is this interesting? Because casual gamers dominate mobile gaming. 78% of downloads were for casual games in 2020. The first crypto game that manages to pull in casual gamers will become a trojan horse to introduce a lot of new people to the crypto industry.

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

7/ Comparable for Fancy Games in the Web2 gaming would be @Roblox, a company currently valued pre-market at 30billion USD. Like Roblox, Fancy Games will be an ecosystem. The power is in the community, and the aim of Fancy Games is to create a metaverse of games powered by $FNC.

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

8/ Combining casual games with crypto elements like Play-to-earn and gameplay intertwined with speculation through tokens and NFTs, should result in an appealing mix to a wide audience. And possibly bringing more gamers/casual audiences to Web3 gaming.

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

9/ Besides the Play-to-earn aspect (which functions as a stimulation for people to play the game) in Fancy Birds, I'm more excited about the use-cases of $FNC and the NFTs within the game.

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

10/ Imagine you play a race against another player, and you both stake a certain amount of $FNC and the winner of the game takes the staked $FNC. Or the winner takes the NFT Bird of the loser. Flappy Birds was addictive...Fancy Birds will be addictive^2 with skin in the game.

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

11/ In addition to $FNC being used as an in-game currency, for staking, and rewards, $FNC will be the governance token of the Fancy DAO. Its still undetermined, but I expect platform revenues to accrue to stakers eventually.

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

12/ Let's discuss whether $FNC is a good investment from the LBP. In my opinion (NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE), $FNC is a potential buy on the LBP based on the following reasons: 1. No supply unlocked besides LBP 2. Unique Positioning 3. Filled roadmap 4. Misunderstood project

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

13/ 1. No supply unlocked All previous rounds (pre-seed, seed, IDO) are locked for 3 months. The pre-seed and seed is afterwards linearly vested for 36 months. This means there's no sell pressure and the lowest cost-base is the lowest price during the LBP.

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

14/ 2. Unique positioning It needs no explanation that Metaverse games and ecosystems are the current hot talks. Fancy Birds has a unique narrative (see above tweets), in a Metaverse trend in which projects like @illuviumio and @AxieInfinity reached 700M+ USD and 7bill USD mcap.

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

15/ 3. Filled roadmap Attention span is short in crypto and people need a motive to hold. With the first game releasing in January 2022, mobile app in Q2, and many more games to be released, there are clear milestones which generally provide a strong holders base.

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

16/ 4. Misunderstood project As I mentioned earlier, Fancy Games DAO will be an entire ecosystem of casual games with $FNC functioning as its back-bone token. However, many people think $FNC is just Fancy Birds. This tends to make the average investor under-appreciates it.

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

17/ IMO Fancy Games DAO will fill unique niche of casual gaming market in Web3. I like the approach of using tried-and-tested game mechanics and combining them with token economics. In addition with great backing, solid token metrics, and a filled roadmap, I'm bullish on $FNC.

StarkNet Maestro @CryptoMaestro

18/ The LBP started at 0.9$ and ending soon. For additional reading a research report by @impossiblefi: medium.com/impossiblefina… Disclaimer: invested in Fancy Birds personally and with @thebutterflydao. Thread is only for informational purpose and not financial advice.