October 15, 2021

All-Time Highs Are in Sight

Introduction

It has been months since Bitcoin peaked at $64k and a tough period of uncertainty and choppy price action ensued. Now, the crypto markets are back strong but it seems like many on Crypto Twitter are still in disbelief.

Indeed, people who only joined in the last 6 months will understandably be scared of another price fall into the abyss. Seasoned hodlers on the other hand – while certainly not emotionally unaffected – weathered the last few months much better and are now (according to on-chain metrics) as confident as ever that this is the mere start of another strong bullish leg up.

Several yellow flags such as high funding rates and rising greed should keep us level-headed In the short term, however (it’s not the time to sell your house and go all-in... 😉)

Bitcoin ETF Confirmed?

• It seems like not much is standing between now and the first launch of a Bitcoin ETF in the US! Let’s hold our breath for an official confirmation…

James Seyffart @JSeyff

There it is! Bloomberg's data team in the process of adding the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF to the terminal. Ticker will be $BITO. 95 bps -- less than half $GBTC's 2% fee. This thing is going live next week. Either Monday or Tuesday.

Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas

JUST IN: Bitcoin futures ETFs said not to face any opposition at SEC, according to multiple sources confirming this (aside, I’m hearing same thing). Pretty much done deal. Expect launches next week. Nice late night story from @kgreifeld @VildanaHajric @benbain

• The SEC has already put out guidelines on Bitcoin Futures ETF investing. 👀

SEC Investor Ed @SEC_Investor_Ed

Before investing in a fund that holds Bitcoin futures contracts, make sure you carefully weigh the potential risks and benefits. Check out our Investor Bulletin to learn more:

go.usa.govFunds Trading in Bitcoin Futures – Investor Bulletin | Investor.govThe Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC’s) Office of Investor Education and Advocacy (OIEA) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) Office of Customer Education and Outreach (OCEO) urge investors considering a fund with exposure to the Bitcoin futures market to weigh carefully …

• How long have we waited for a Bitcoin ETF? Crypto OGs will know that the “ETF meme” has been alive for many years now. Clearly, many will be in disbelief if we finally get an ETF approved!

Pomp 🌪 @APompliano

They printed trillions into the halving and now they're going to approve the ETF into the second leg of a bull run. Unreal.

• In case you wonder if you should get your hands on the imminently launching Bitcoin Futures ETF – if you’re not a corporation or institutional player, the answer is clearly no.

Preston Pysh @PrestonPysh

By the way, this #Bitcoin ETF will suck. The tracking error will suck, the fees will suck, the counterparty risk will suck... Unless you have serious account restrictions on how you can get access to owning Bitcoin, buy the real stuff. And learn how to take self-custody of it.

Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI

Issuing the BTC futures ETF is a good step but its basically handing hedge funds a massive arbitrage opportunity as the futures will trade at a large premium in bull phases and they get to capture those returns. 1/

Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI

This is the old financial market trick - you now have to add multiple new intermediaries who all make profits - the ETF provider, clearing house, futures broker, administrator, auditor, law firm, CME and hedge fund arbs. Wall street gets richer. Retail investors lose. Again.

• The next critical step is, of course, getting a physically-backed Bitcoin ETF. The chances for an approval are indeed getting better but it would be surprising to get one approved already this year.

Matt Hougan @Matt_Hougan

1/ Today @NYSE filed for a Bitwise Bitcoin ETF! It would hold actual BTC, *not* futures. There’s already a separate BTC futures-based Bitwise ETF filing. But actual BTC is better. And we believe it’s finally possible. We're sharing 100+ pages of analysis on why. Thread—

Long-Term Holders Are Holding Their BTC Tight

• A couple of days ago, we observed some profit-taking by older BTC holders and we mentioned that we should keep an eye on this metric. What are we seeing now? Long-term holders are holding more Bitcoin than ever, signaling that there might not be enough liquid BTC for everyone who wants to get in.

• With the likely Bitcoin ETF approval serving as a strong catalyst, this could mean another historic supply shock is just around the corner.

Will Clemente @WClementeIII

Long term holder Supply Shock ratio is now clearly at the highest it's ever been. These next few months are gonna be wild.

• While we see bullishness and confidence across the board on Crypto Twitter, which is generally a short-term warning sign, we are still far away from reaching a “macro euphoria top”. There are simply too many people still on the sidelines…

Rekt Capital @rektcapital

Macro euphoria still lies ahead #BTC $ETH #Bitcoin

Do You Have a Strategy in Place?

• Now that the time of boring price action seems to be coming to an end, it is important to ask yourself if you are mentally prepared for what might come next. Having a strategy in place to keep you from making rushed, emotional decisions is key, especially in a phase of rapid price moves.

CRYPL 🔺 @CryptoPalacio

@blknoiz06 I have a trade plan Im also not going to follow it

• Time and experience are the best teachers when it comes to investing! However, learning from others can help you avoid “expensive mistakes” in the beginning. Here are a couple of tips that you might find useful:

Ansem🃏 @blknoiz06

sell partials at pre-determined levels, keep track of how long its been since the last market selloff, as that number goes up w/ out a deep pullback train yourself to be more cautious

Superhot Maki | 🦇🔊 🌉🔺 @superhotmaki

@blknoiz06 Any tips sir. I’m notoriously bad at selling.

Soulgear (3,3)🤝(🎩,🎩) @Soulgear

@wawin @blknoiz06 some people have a buying problem, some have a selling problem. know yourself.

Soulgear (3,3)🤝(🎩,🎩) @Soulgear

@mustachedcrypt0 @wawin @blknoiz06 be happy with what you made. no one can time these things perfectly. 99% of CT is lying about their success rate.

wawin @wawin

@blknoiz06 New participants also get psyoppd by bull market pull backs after the ath run starts cause they can be so deep, being mentally ready for them helps

Microstrategy’s Massive Bitcoin Bet Is Playing out

• Often laughed at by the mainstream and even ridiculed by many in the crypto community, Michael Saylor’s enormous Bitcoin bet is ultimately bearing fruit, generating more than a 2x on the company’s investments. No one can say that Saylor didn’t have strong hands since several of Microstrategy’s BTC buys were heavily underwater for a couple of months…

Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine

OFFICIAL: MicroStrategy has doubled its money on its #Bitcoin investment. Its $3.16 billion is now worth $6.7 billion.

Massive Amounts of Money Are Flowing into the Space

• While BTC is drawing all eyes thanks to the (rightly hyped) Bitcoin ETF, there is a TON of capital flowing into the overall crypto space, which will ultimately help drive and accelerate the developments in the cryptosphere

Jacquelyn Melinek @jacqmelinek

In just Q3 2021, funding for blockchain companies hit all-time highs of $6.586 billion, which is almost double the $3.8 billion raised in the entirety of 2020. As 2021 nears to an end, Q4 capital is showing no signs of slowing down. More on @Blockworks_

blockworks.coFunding: Tala Raises $145M, Ethereum-based Aurora Closes $12M Round - BlockworksAs the funding world is in its final and fourth quarter of 2021, capital continues to flow into the crypto space.

When a Narrative Becomes Too Hot…

• We recently covered DeFi 2.0 and the impressive rise of the “cool Ponzi” project Olympus. As we have seen time and time again, too much attention and hype on Crypto Twitter is generally not good for an ongoing trend. When too many people are on one side of the boat…

• Just look at the OHM chart below to see what a violent sell-off looks like. Its price plunged more than 50 % in a matter of just 24 hours (it recovered somewhat since but is in danger of rolling over again). This is a good reminder to always keep a cool head when investing and not jump on a trend when it’s already getting too hot.

Rager 📈 @Rager

OH My

• OHM’s “sticky” price mechanics proved to work very well during a bullish trend. But how does it react when some holders start to sell nevertheless? A reflexive down spiral could be the result. For now, let’s see if holders remain loyal and keep OHM afloat… It’s definitely an interesting experiment.

Steven @Dogetoshi

Remember that each OHM is backed by ~$35 so you’re safe.